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| Authored by: Anonymous on Thursday, April 11 2013 @ 01:04 AM EDT |
...your point about dominant OS's being tossed into the
trash with great rapidity is well-taken. But, I suspect
you're wrong. The mobile OS market looks to be taking a
much accelerated trip along the same path as desktops. And,
like desktops, the lock-in effect from developed software
looks likely to overwhelm innovations in OS for mobile going
forwards. There, Android may well end up being effectively
locked in. This is kind of a shame, as (I'm not an expert)
microkernel or similar architectures look likely to offer
equivalent but more stable and secure performance.
...that said...my guess for the next innovation in OS is
similar to your second guess. Truly integrated/distributed
computing will stress small/cheap devices. One reason
Windows Phone lost the mobile market is because the OS was
simply too bloated to compete on price. I suspect that a
microkernel or smaller architecture will be more important
on smaller devices - where Linux may not run comfortably.
Or I might be completely wrong.
For mobile, I'd bet against both of your scenarios. The
middle ground in privacy looks optimal to me. My guess is
that the median adult is grateful to store their calendar
and email in a cloud server and willing to divulge their
search history to improve search results, but would rather
not broadcast their drunken revels publicly.
I could easily be completely wrong. Far too many people on
Facebook seem determined to prove me wrong.
--Erwin[ Reply to This | Parent | # ]
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