What you're speaking of is a complex issue. Of the inner planets, Earth has
the greatest probability of being ejected at some point in the future as the
mass of the Sun decreases with age (Earth being the most massive). However, The
Neptune is far more likely to be ejected first (greater mass, less gravitational
force, greater momentum, more unstable orbit, and all that). A body in motion
tends to travel in a straight line unless acted upon by a force.
In fact it is
thought that Neptune has already been shoved into a different orbit because of
Jupiter-Saturn.
The gravitational force of the Sun being strong enough to
bend those bodies into elliptical orbits. Highly theoretical, and I haven't done
any calculations nor seen any, to indicate a .1 probability, which is actually
quite incredible.
One starting point is this Wikipedia
article. The problem as it states that our computer models can't model the
system for very long periods of time.
However, it should be noted that
the Kuiper belt and the Asteroid Belt contain object in rather unstable orbits.
the resonance between Jupiter and Saturn are large contributary factors
there.
So, a very complex issue, not only does the Sun's gravitational
effect come into play, but the eccentricity of planetary orbits, the
gravitational forces between the bodies, and the resonance of those bodies in
relation to each other. Among the most easily determined factors. [ Reply to This | Parent | # ]
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