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Seismologists Convicted of Not Predicting Earthquake | 198 comments | Create New Account
Comments belong to whoever posts them. Please notify us of inappropriate comments.
Seismologists Convicted of Not Predicting Earthquake
Authored by: Anonymous on Thursday, October 25 2012 @ 06:43 AM EDT
If you can't predict an earthquake you should say that you can't predict it.
That is an entirely different thing than saying there won't be one tonight and
don't worry about it.

[ Reply to This | Parent | # ]

Seismologists Convicted of Not Predicting Earthquake
Authored by: Anonymous on Friday, October 26 2012 @ 07:16 AM EDT

Try looking this up carefully. It's very difficult and I haven't yet found the original judgement. The comments (not posting) on Bruce Schneier's blog seem to be a good point to start.

The important points as I understand them

  • one low level scientist specifically predicted the earth quake related to some tremors.
  • the earth quake prediction was based on relatively new science, was somewhat speculative but did have some basis.
  • the scientists in question made a private report to the local officials.
  • the local officials (non scientist) said that the original scientist was wrong and that there was almost no risk.
  • the local officials were misleading and wrong; they misrepresented what the scientists said. They were also simply wrong about there being an earth quake.
  • the scientists failed to correct that and the court felt they had the duty to (haven't been able to find out why)
  • the scientists also failed investigate or point out the specific risks of local buildings
  • many people who had decided to move to safety due to the tremors returned to their homes

Based on that understanding; the scientists are not being charged for failing to predict. They are being charged for allowing misleading information (about risks being lower than they were) to be presented in their name.

I do not think it's appropriate to criticise this until the point that someone actually finds the Italian judgement, translates it into English. So far I haven't been able to work out where to get it from. This would actually be a very interesting legal case to investigate from the side of Groklaw. I know it's outside the norm, however that makes it much more educational.

PJ. If you are interested to investigate need some money (up to say 100Euro) to help with that I will be willing to put it up. I'll try to remember to check back at this comment and I definitely read all front page articles.

[ Reply to This | Parent | # ]

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